However, we don’t want to sound alarmist, because monetary policy works with a lag and there are plenty of monetary indicators pointing to healthy economic growth in 2021. The historical lag and correlation between falling interest rates and ISM indicate a level of 60ish early 2021, heading higher later, and a Euro area PMI also in the 60s. Also, the huge increase in money supply should continue to help markets. S&P 500 market cap to GDP is above the IT bubble, but if we instead compare it with money supply, it is nowhere near previous highs.
Post a Comment